Hydrogen: Carnival Feast or wealth to take the risk?
It has been predicted that hydrogen will be the next industrial revolution began, but some people said that this will be a change in the energy sector, since the steam engine, internal combustion engine after the first industrial revolution, human beings.
According to “21st Century Business Herald” reported that the development of traditional energy sources and wider use of internal combustion engine, creating a number of energy giants and automotive tycoon. Such as fuel cells, such as the development of new energy sources as well as the extensive application will be bound to the field of energy in the new wealth created a myth around the energy changes lead to a redistribution of wealth and transfer. However, investment in new energy field, such as the development of fuel cell vehicles, in addition to high returns, but also means that a huge risk.
Faced with uncertain prospects for commercial application, many of energy tycoons and car giant to participate in this competition, carnival is a feast or a wealth of adventure?
Tens of billions of dollars “burn” hydrogen car
In the November 4, held on the 9th Shanghai International Industry Fair, a named “Beyond II” of the car led to the attention of those present. From all appearances, this is just an ordinary Santana 3000 sedans, but the hood open to see is a different picture: There is no tradition of motor vehicles using gasoline engines, but a fuel cell, fuel tank is way to a hydrogen storage tank, a hydrogen storage tank to support the car for 168 kilometers of hydrogen exercise.
This is the only road into the home-made fuel cell test vehicles, the battery is used Shanghai Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (Shanghai) design and manufacturing.
Prior to the October 30, General Motors and SAIC announced that the joint development of fuel cell buses; 12 October, Volkswagen and Tongji University signed an agreement for fuel cell vehicle research; September 14, and FAW Toyota Motor announced Group co-production mixed power car “pioneer” (Prius); 5 25, Mercedes - Benz Citaro hydrogen fuel cell buses debut in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, next year, Mercedes-Benz will launch in Beijing, three fuel cell buses .
For a time, into a fuel cell vehicle, almost all auto makers have begun in the field of fuel cell vehicle ready.
Domestic fuel cell vehicle the birth of
“At that time, few people have heard of fuel cells, some people even thought it was like oil and water is a pseudo-science.” Yaojia Long recalled in 1998 when Shanghai started difficult.
In fact, as early as the 90s of last century, developed countries in the West began to study the fuel cell.
The United States in the fuel cell research has shown very positive. In 2003, the Bush administration approved a U.S. Department of Energy to develop the “hydrogen program.” In the next 5 years, the U.S. government will invest three billion U.S. dollars to develop hydrogen fuel technology. The Japanese government plans to 2020, for four billion U.S. dollars investment in fuel cell research. The Government of France, fuel cell research project is estimated to be 1 billion U.S. dollars.
The above-mentioned several Governments in the development of new energy sources of competition, the budget has been invested tens of billions of dollars more than on.
The current general manager of Shanghai Dr. Hu Liqing, in a world-class fuel cell company for two years. In 1998, returning to Shanghai from Canada lecture Qing Hu occasionally found in Western developed countries have done the fuel cell was heated, no one internally is also carried out research. Huri returned entrepreneurial decision-ching.
In 1998, Shanghai creation, the beginning of China-made fuel cell research. At that time, the company registered capital of only 50 million yuan. Shanghai Comprehensive Industrial Development Zone is a major shareholder, a Shanghai suburb of Fengxian private enterprises are also involved in the investment.
Shanghai R & D funding comes mainly from the National Science and Technology Fund, to date, Shanghai was 8,000 million yuan R & D funds.
However, at every turn with the developed countries to invest billions of dollars compared to Shanghai R & D funding is clearly insignificant.
Hydrogen fuel cells abroad, mainly in the way of high pressure hydrogen gas, but the use of divine power is hydrogen gas pressure. In contrast, high-pressure gas in a larger number of power, General Motors launched on the 3rd kind of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the power to achieve 80 kilowatts, while Shanghai study “Beyond 3″ is only the fuel cell power 50 kilowatts.
The cost of fuel cell pressure is relatively low. In the process of industrialization, the cost is often the major obstacle to the industrialization of whether the economy can determine to a large extent the promotion of large-scale.
Shanghai involved in fuel cell vehicle 863 of the two projects, one of which is fuel-cell cars “Beyond” series, and the other is the fuel cell bus. In these two projects, the study atmospheric Shanghai fuel cell buses on the more obvious advantages.
Shanghai is in accordance with the divine power, Mercedes-Benz launched in Beijing called Clitato three fuel cell buses, it is estimated that each cost as much as two million euros, of which part of the fuel cell would require 1.4 million euros, is ten times the price of conventional engines. However, “our cost of more than half of them even lower,” said Shanghai Foreign .
Although the cost of more expensive, but hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is the use of relatively low cost. Now the price of hydrogen 9 yuan per cubic meter, and in accordance with the divine power of the Shanghai Fuel Cell Hydrogen consumption, consumption per 100 km car 1.03 kilograms of hydrogen, which is equivalent to 1.42 cubic meters of hydrogen. And general economic car fuel per 100 kilometers 6-8 liters, in accordance with the current oil prices, more than 20. The use of fuel cells than the economic cost of the car even lower number.
In fact, Shanghai is also a divine power there is no way to choose pressure option. The production of high-pressure hydrogen fuel cells need to generate high-pressure hydrogen gas, high pressure gas to produce hydrogen, will require high-pressure air compressors. But the reality is that domestic manufacturers can not produce a stable and reliable high-pressure air compressors.
Prior to this, countries have to invest in research devoted to these types of air compressors, but so far no results, while imports of such air compressors for more than a million each priced yuan.
Between the two camps
In the hydrogen fuel cell competition, in addition to government departments, developed into a large, multinational companies are also actively promoting the development of fuel cell vehicles. GM fuel cell vehicle research input has more than 1 billion U.S. dollars.
The development of fuel cell vehicles have been divided into two camps: on behalf of Toyota and GM for the party; to Decker, Ford and Mitsubishi the other. Competition between them has reached the stage of standard-setting.
September 1 this year, Van Dyke, two car giant Ford announced that for fuel cell vehicles in the world of technical advantage, hand in hand to buy the famous Ballard Power Systems of Canada, established a new alliance.
Ballard companies in the world fuel cell vehicle research and development in a leading position. In 1993, Ballard developed the first fuel-cell concept car, introduced in 1997 the 16 fuel cell buses, respectively, in the United States, Canada, Vancouver, Chicago and trial operation. As early as in August 1997, Ballard and Van Dyke on the formation of joint ventures, in December the same year, Ford has also joined.
Fuel cell with oxygen and hydrogen as raw material, oxygen requirements can be obtained from the air, how difficult is to get a hydrogen fuel —.
Toyota and GM camp is the way to obtain hydrogen: clean hydrocarbons from a fuel known as a new type of hydrogen from gasoline. Earlier this year, the U.S. oil company Exxon to participate in this camp, the Exxon oil and GM and Toyota R & D to reach agreement, the joint development of hydrogen fuel cell. Shell joined.
In another camp, Decker, Ford and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. camp with natural gas as raw materials, to take the quality of the methanol solution to obtain hydrogen system. BP is a supporter of the camp. Decker fuel cell buses running in a city, BP on the establishment of hydrogen refueling station in the local. In April this year, BP and Ford co-operation to provide 30 Ford hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, BP is in the United States Detroit, Orlando and other cities to establish hydrogenation network.
Beginning this year, the two camps has become very fierce competition. Decker, Ford, General Motors announced in 2004, the company’s fuel cell vehicles will be mass production. Toyota has even said that to develop the next generation fuel cell vehicle.
In addition, Fiat, Renault, Volvo and Peugeot Italy used by companies such as the fuel cell, fuel cell vehicle development. Volkswagen, BMW, Nissan also has its own fuel cell development program.
Gold dream
A U.S. research company forecasts fuel cell vehicles will become the future of the automobile industry the main directions of development. By 2007, fuel cells in transportation of commercial value will reach nine billion U.S. dollars, with the proportion of fuel cell vehicles increases, the data the possibility of further expansion.
However, the area of the national hydrogen energy chief scientist, Professor Mao Zongqiang, the hydrogen energy development is now recognized as a major problem there are two problems, first, the use of hydrogen energy expensive equipment; Second, the facilities of hydrogenation is not complete, there is no network for hydrogen, resulting in the popularization and application of hydrogen energy in check.
At the same time, hydrogen storage is a major problem. It is generally worried that hydrogen fuel will be an explosion.
“In fact, as hydrogen and natural gas, and its endorsement process and will not be more unsafe than gasoline,” Science and Technology Co., Ltd. Shanghai Yaojia Long said, “it is clear that a set of gasoline has been regulated safety standards.”
Hydrogenation of the fastest growing network in Japan, there are nine hydrogen refueling station, and will be completed in two to three years dozens of hydrogen refueling station. In China, Shanghai has made it clear only next year to build a hydrogen refueling station.
Despite the obstacles, cross-car giant in the field of fuel cell vehicle research and promotion in speeding up the pace. The beginning of this year, Toyota, Ford and other companies have been identified the introduction of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles a timetable, and some mixed driving force mass production models.
“Fuel cell technology can set off the revolution in the automotive industry.” General Motors R & D, Vice-Minister of said, “If you do not proceed to create the future, and actively creating the future, your competitors will be the first step. ”
In October of this year, held in Shanghai New Energy Challenge Bibendum, the GM, Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Toyota, Nissan, almost all of the depot have laid their own fuel cell vehicle.
“We are not displayed in the distant future may be what is happening,” Ford vice president Susan Cischke are so told reporters that “This is a practical and effective technology is extremely promising.”
Until now, Shanghai not sell a product, but also did not receive a penny of income, and in the foreseeable period of time, still need to be invested in a large amount of money.
Under such circumstances, Shanghai ready to devote more energy to easily achieve the industrialization of small-scale fuel cell projects, such as tour buses, such as back-up power stations. Compared to these areas of fuel cell vehicles to reduce a number of technical requirements, and power is also smaller. More than 10 billion U.S. dollars of the cost of new energy to explore the road, seems to have opened the door to Alibaba, but do not know who is inside the door or bandit treasure.
Mass production of fuel cell vehicles will not be long before
Tongji University, China Steel principals million fuel cell vehicle project founder and witnesses.
In 2000, in Dr. Wan Gang foreign to the State Council put forward the development of clean energy cars, the realization of China’s automobile industry by leaps and bounds in development, and national ministries such as Ministry of Science and Technology of the attention and support. Subsequently, the Ministry of Science and Technology Wan Gang was appointed as the national “863 Program” of electric vehicles, Chief Scientist for major projects, on the whole team. Project Leader as the first, Wan Gang took the program the most complex projects of fuel cell cars. To date, 10,000 steel research group has developed a “go beyond the” first, second, third-generation fuel cell vehicle on the 3rd Test like cars.
Fuel cell vehicle in the end whether the domestic automobile industry has become a growth point of Daxin, and even replace traditional energy vehicles? Recently our reporter interviewed million steel.
Production needed for more than 10 years
“21st Century”: mass production fuel cell vehicles more optimistic about the prospects for, how long will this process?
WAN Gang: the need for a process of mass production. We plan to model the composition of the team in 2006, when the 2008 Olympic Games has put into commercial fuel cell vehicle running, in 2010 the team set up hundreds of vehicles, as car Expo. After the Expo, from taxis, buses began to start. After 2015, annual production is expected to reach the scale of hundreds of thousands of vehicles.
European project in 2020 so that the new car in the gross domestic energy 5% of the total automobile output in 2020 reached 10%. If China and Europe will be the same, they need five million new energy vehicles, such as to meet Japan’s standards, would require 10 million new energy vehicles. Even if the proportion of 3% in accordance with terms, 2.5 million need. The accumulation takes time, so we carried out the development of fuel cell vehicle is a very urgent request.
“21st Century”: If the use of hydrogen energy, hydrogen can guarantee a source of growing energy needs?
WAN Gang: I recently went to a meeting, conference, display the use of methanol, natural gas, gasoline, hydrogen gas, such as machines, that is to say that all energy can be hydrogen. In fact, there may be more sources, and can be recycled, which will greatly broaden the source of hydrogen.
Obstacles in the system
“21″: at the present stage, the introduction of the mixture of fuel cell powered car what the obstacles encountered?
WAN Gang: Recently, I strongly urge, the Beijing municipal government to the needs of the Olympic Games, the procurement of 40 fuel cell buses, although the adoption of a national test, but did not notice the Street can not. Therefore, new developments may have a number of institutional constraints.
“21st Century”: It is now a lot of giant multinational corporations in China have begun to prepare for the launch of its fuel cell vehicle, the domestic depot similar initiatives?
WAN Gang: I have this idea of home depot. FAW, the second gas, Chery, Changan are determined, Beijing has also developed a hybrid bus. However, the actual operation can achieve our goal, to see the final outcome of this.
“21st Century”: now there are many taxis in the use of natural gas, this new form of energy of a transition?
Wan Gang: In 1998, 10 domestic cities with natural gas as main fuel, “clean car up”, the year can save about 1.3 million tons of gasoline. Particularly in Shanghai, has 38,000 taxis using natural gas, more than 100 filling stations throughout the city. The future, in addition to continue to reduce fuel emissions of motor vehicles, but also to promote hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
“21st Century”: BMW has been strongly advocated the promotion of hydrogen engines, and that by 2025 half of the BMW hydrogen engine products to be used. The development of hydrogen engine where the greatest degree of difficulty?
WAN Gang: the engine has been developed for several decades, the technology is quite advanced, into hydrogen fuel, not investment. But the hydrogen engine has not fundamentally solve the problem of thermal effect. In addition, the storage of liquid hydrogen has a very high technical requirements, so now everyone in the study of hydrogen gas. So, I think hydrogen engine research, the biggest problem is how to store liquid hydrogen. Of course, BMW said, such as fuel cell technology is mature, the end fuel cells do.